- A lower jobless claims number means a stronger job market and a healthier economy.
- A higher jobless claims number means a weaker job market and a declining economy.
- A 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the jobless claims trend.
The combination of both improving chain store sales and improving jobless claims is signaling an improving economy during the rough winter months.
January factory orders rose 1.7% led by strength within the industrials sector, especially transportation equipment and aerospace. Factory orders advanced 1.0% in December on top of the 1.0% gain in November. Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for durable and nondurable goods and these are usually led by petroleum and coal price increases. However natural gas futures declined 4% after the government reported supplies fell less than last week.
January pending home sales decreased 7.6% to 90.4 compared to December. However pending home sales still remains above December 2008’s 87.1. Analysts project stabilization for home prices as new-home sales will remain low due to lack of construction while inventories are pulled down.
Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for housing activity providing demand for housing and economic trends. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing. Equities to watch on these numbers include: Home builders, mortgage lenders, and home furnishings companies.
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