Day Trading Economic News Analysis: S&P 500 April 30, 2010

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S&P 500 Pivots

Another positive day for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow as they all traded into positive terrority on the day after of the FOMC announcement. Currently all the major indexes are broke through their natural resistance levels: Dow 11,000. Nasdaq 2500, and S&P 500 1200.

After strong economic earnings and jobless claims falling to 448,000 pushed the indexes higher. The S&P 500 Index is still below Wednesday’s previous high of 1211. Breaking this level would represent a significant upward dash to the 52 week high of 1220.

Friday is the last day in April so expect some end of the month activity with various economic numbers expect. GDP numbers will give us the momentum of the market going into the first quarter of 2010. The market is mostly likely to be weak after the April 15^th tax deadline. Since the S&P 500 is back below the natural support level of 1200 – the daily chart may indicate the beginnings of a trend change as we reach the ‘Sell in May’ prophecy. However the daily trend remains quite strong.

The market volatility index fell to 18.44 after nearing the 200 moving average on the daily chart. It reached the 52 week low of 15.23.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1220: 52 Week High

1211: Wednesday’s Previous High

1203: Friday’s Primary Pivot Level

1200: Natural Support

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

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Day Trading Economic News Analysis: S&P 500 April 29, 2010

Understanding economic activity as well as the direction of the market will lead you to profitable trades. Keep up with our live news feed - Sign up at TraderMongers.com

S&P 500 Pivots

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow all traded into positive terrority on the day of the FOMC announcement. However except for the Dow which traded above 11,000, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell short of breaking their natural resistance levels of 1200 and 2500, respectively. Stocks rose after the FOMC announcement that fed funds will be low for an ‘extended period’ to promote economic stability and growth.

The market is mostly likely to be weak after the April 15^th tax deadline. Since the S&P 500 is back below the natural support level of 1200 – the daily chart may indicate the beginnings of a trend change as we reach the ‘Sell in May’ prophecy.

Tomorrow both weekly jobless claims and natural gas report are due. Since there is no change in the FOMC’s fed funds target rate expect crude oil to go higher especially if jobless claims increase. Increased jobless claims will reinforce the Fed’s position of keeping interest rates steady.

However watch the dollar trade if it goes higher especially after the S&P downgraded Spain following yesterday’s Greece and Portugal downgrades to junk status. If the dollar goes higher then regardless of the jobless claims crude oil will go lower.

The market volatility index ended the day just above 20.85, which is the 144 Fibonacci moving average on the 5 minute chart. If the daily chart of the S&P indicate the beginnings of a trend change as we reach the ‘Sell in May’ prophecy then watch the market volatility index to stay way above it’s 52 week low of 15.23.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1200: Natural Resistance Level

1195: Wednesday’s Previous High

1192: Wednesday’s Primary Pivot level

1189: Thursday’s Primary Pivot Level

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

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Day Trading Economic News Analysis: S&P 500 April 28, 2010

Understanding economic activity as well as the direction of the market will lead you to profitable trades. Keep up with our live news feed - Sign up at TraderMongers.com

S&P 500 Pivots

The S&P 500 index broke through the natural support of 1200 and stopped at the low of 1183.71. Yesterday the index reached a 52 week high before falling to 1212. Today the trend continues as the Dow and the Nasdaq also fell below their natural support levels of 11,000 and 2500, respectively. The sell off was shortly after Standard & Poor’s downgraded both Greek and Portuguese debt to junk status.

Now the S&P 500 is back below the natural support level of 1200 – the daily chart may indicate the beginnings of a trend change as we reach the ‘Sell in May’ prophecy. The market is mostly likely to be weak after the April 15th tax deadline.

Tomorrow afternoon is the FOMC announcement so expect rates to remain steady as we go through market recovery. Wednesday’s primary pivot is 1192.24 – currently the market is near the same point as it was ten days ago. Unless the FOMC announcement is extremely positive then expect the market to be below the 1200 natural resistance level. Looking at the market volatility index which rallied off its 52 week lows of 15.23 and it is currently around the 200 moving average area on the daily chart.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1200: Natural Resistance Level

1192: Wednesday’s Primary Pivot level

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: S&P 500 April 27, 2010

Understanding the direction of the market as well as the economic activity will lead you to profitable trades. Keep up with our live news feed and the trend with Tradermongers.com!

S&P 500 Pivots

The S&P 500 index reached a 52 week high today before falling back to negative terrority to 1212. The 1212 level is the 200 moving average on the 5 minute chart. The index made several attempts to stay above Friday’s previous high of 1217 however fell short during afternoon trading. The market was strong in the morning due to Caterpillar’s earnings however fell due to financial regulation talks in Washington.

Currently all the major indexes are above their support levels indication possible economic recovery and sustained growth. The Dow is above the 11,000, the Nasdaq is above 2500, and the S&P500 is above 1200. Unless any of these support levels breaks, expect chopping trading going higher. On the daily chart the S&P has consistently trended higher since early February.

Tuesday’s primary pivot point is 1213 – just above Monday’s close. Expect Tuesday’s market activity to be slow due to the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The Market Volatility Index has been trending lower since October of 2008 and recently reached a 52 week low of 15.27. Expect the volatility to be tamed around this area as economic recovery and growth reenters the market.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1219: S&P 500 52 Week High

1217: Friday’s Previous High

1213: Tuesday’s Primary Pivot Level

1212: 200 Moving Average on 5 minute chart

1200: Natural support level

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: S&P 500 April 22, 2010

S&P 500 Pivots

The S&P 500 ended 1 index point lower to 1206. Guidance cuts from the health-care sector were cancelled by better-than-expected earnings from Apple and Boeing. Earning season will continue to drive the market for the foreseeable future.

On the technical level all main indexes including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all above their previous resistance levels indicating possible economic recovery and sustained growth. Previously the Dow broke 11,000 and investors were waiting for the S&P 500 to break 1200. Once that happened then the next index was the Nasdaq which reached 2500.

Thursday’s primary pivot point for the S&P 500 is 1205.26 and the 52 week high is 1214. The market stayed above Wednesday’s primary pivot level of 1204.93 driving the foundation of building support within the S&P 500 before going higher. The market made attempts to push above 1208 area however failed.

Yesterday’s previous low was 1199 which also crosses over the 8 Fibonacci moving average on the daily chart. Currently the new 8 Fibonacci moving average is 1200. Unless earnings and other economic numbers released today are horrible (See other report: Day Trading Economic News Analysis: Events April 22, 2010) expect the S&P to stay above the 1200. If the market breaks 1200 expect traders to take some very good short positions.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1214: S&P 500 52 Week High

1205: Today’s Primary Pivot Level

1203 – 1205: Convergence 8, 21, 55, 144 Fibonacci

moving averages on 5 minute chart

1201: 200 Moving average on 5 minute chart

1200: 8 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: S&P 500 April 21, 2010

S&P 500 Pivots

On Tuesday the S&P 500 ended at 1207. Previously the Dow broke 11,000 and investors were waiting for the S&P 500 to break 1200. Once that happened then the next index was the Nasdaq which reached 2500. Yesterday the index reached a 52 high of 2518 before settling to 2500. Its time to look forward beyond recovery and into growth after these indexes finally broke through their 52 week highs.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke favored breaking up firms before they become too big to fail in an effort to overhaul financial rules and limiting executive pay. Overhauling the financial sector will bring added security to avoid future credit crises as the one in 2008.

On Monday the financial sector was helped with strong earnings from Citigroup after the plunge from SEC investigations against Goldman Sachs. Citigroup report the best results in 3 years after the fallout from the credit crisis. March leading indicators was up 1.4% showing slow recovery due to the higher than expect jobless claims. The rally continued into Tuesday’s trading day.

Wednesday’s primary pivot point for the S&P 500 is 1204.93 and the 52 week high is 1214. Watch the market to stay above today’s primary pivot level because there is support below that level. This should provide a foundation to push the S&P 500 higher to fresh new highs.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1214: S&P 500 52 week high

1205:55 Fibonacci moving average on 5 minute chart

1204: April 21^st primary pivot point

1202: 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving average on 5 minute chart

1199: 8 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart

1197: April 19^th previous high

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: April 20, 2010

SP 500 Pivots

Monday’s trading the SP 500 ended at 1198 below the 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving averages on the 5 minute chart. Recently the volatility index spiked from a 52 week low of 15.23 to 17.34. There seems to be support between 16.50 and 15.50. Breaking these levels will push the SP 500 index higher.

The financial sector was helped with strong earnings from Citigroup after the plunge from SEC investigations against Goldman Sachs. Citigroup report the best results in 3 years after the fallout from the credit crisis. March leading indicators was up 1.4% showing slow recovery due to the higher than expect jobless claims.

Tuesday’s primary pivot point is 1193. Expect the market to trade higher breaking through the 1200 SP 500 level. Yesterday the index traded near 1183 (55 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart) then rallied upward. The overall trend for the SP 500 on the dailies is upward.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1214: SP 500 52 week high

1192 - 1196: 8, 21, 55, 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving averages on 5 minute chart

1194: Monday, April 12, 2010 previous high

1189: Tuesday, April 13, 2010 previous low

1183: 55 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart

Commodities Analysis: Gold and Crude

Gold is currently down $2 to $1135. The gold prices may been settled in and may trend lower however gold imports are up in India ahead of the one million weddings planned between April and May. Gold has been trading sideways since it has come down in early December 2009.

A trading strategy for gold includes buying calls on SPDR Gold Trust (ETF: GLD). On the daily chart gold broke through the trading range above 1220 set in early December 2009.

Crude oil fell 1.8% to $83.13. Currently crude oil has been trending upward since early February and it is currently trading around 81.33 (55 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart). The dollar gained strength as traders and investors exited the market after the SEC announcement against Goldman Sachs. As the dollar continues to trend higher against the euro expect prices of crude oil to fall.

Forex Analysis: Dollar Vs Euro

The dollar gained again as investors and traders rushed to safety from stocks as Goldman Sachs faces SEC actions as well as worries over Greek debt. Previous the euro touched the 1.36 level which is the 55 Fibonacci moving average on the daily chart before sliding lower.

GE is investing 340 million Euros ($460 million) to expand European wind operations. Companies buying into foreign currencies for purchases and investing increase the demand towards that country's currency. However the Euro gains are being cut short as Greece struggles with issues on their debt.

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: April 19, 2010

S&P 500 Pivots

On Friday Goldman Sachs was charged by the SEC with civil fraud regarding dealings of the subprime related products. Expect European and Asia markets to be lower on Monday after the aftermath of selling on the US exchanges. The S&P 500 fell to 1192 ending the day near last Wednesday’s previous low.

Monday’s primary pivot point is 1196.36. Expect minimum market activity until the S&P 500 breaks out between the 1189 and 1199 range. The market will go lower if it breaks support around the 1189 area. The market will go higher if it breaks the 1199 resistance because it is also the convergence of the 144 and 500 Fibonacci moving averages on the 5 minute chart.

If the market stays above Monday’s primary pivot then of 1196 then the market will have a higher chance of staying positive. If the market is trading below 1196 then market sentiment is cautious and heading towards the 1189 support area.

Summary of Pivot Levels:

1214: S&P 500 52 week high

1199: Convergence of 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving averages

1196: Monday’s primary pivot point

1194: Monday, April 12, 2010 previous high

1189: Tuesday, April 13, 2010 previous low

Commodities Analysis: Gold and Crude

Gold is currently down $23.00 to $1137 as gold imports are up in India ahead of the one million weddings planned between April and May. The gold prices may have been settled in and may trend lower. As we have mentioned on our April 14^th analysis, gold is expected to lower as it has been rising since March 24^th.

A trading strategy for gold includes buying calls on SPDR Gold Trust (ETF: GLD). On the daily chart gold broke through the trading range above 1220 set in early December 2009.

Crude oil fell $2.59 to $83.24. The dollar gained strength as traders and investors exited the market after the SEC announcement against Goldman Sachs. As the dollar continues to trend higher against the euro expect prices of crude oil to fall. We have mentioned on April 14^th that the 60 day chart crude oil looks to be tipping over as traders are expected to take profits.

Forex Analysis: Dollar Vs Euro

The dollar gained as investors and traders rushed to safety from stocks as Goldman Sachs faces SEC actions. GE is investing 340 million Euros ($460 million) to expand European wind operations. Companies buying into foreign currencies for purchases and investing increase the demand towards that country's currency. However the Euro gains are being cut short as Greece struggles with issues on their debt.

Monday Economic Numbers

March Leading Indicators are expected however are unlikely to move markets as developments in Greece debt and Goldman Sachs takes center stage. Last month February Leading Indicators increased to only 0.1% compared to January's 0.3%. The 3-month moving average decreased to 0.53% growth compared to last month's 0.86%.

Leading indicators is a composite of ten economic indicators including production workweek, money supply, inventory changes, stock prices, unemployment insurance claims to generate an overview of the economic activity. Regardless of strength within the manufacturing sector, some of these other indicators are showing weakness in the overall economy.

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: April 15, 2010

April Empire State Manufacturing Survey

In March the New York Fed reported that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell by 2 points to 22.86 from February's 24.91 however it is above the consensus of 22.0. New orders should see an increase in the April Empires State manufacturing index.

The manufacturing survey gives a detail look at New York's manufacturing sector, which is ahead of other surveys such as the Philadelphia Fed and ISM manufacturing index.

Jobless Claims

During the first week of April CareerBuilder.com provided a sense of optimism as the number of job listings increased. However last week the Labor Department showed negative signs in the labor market as jobless claims rose to 460k compared to 439k for the previous week. The increase may have been due to the Easter holiday as well as Cesar Chavez national holiday in California.

The 4 week moving average gives a better perspective than the weekly report.

Previously the 4 week moving average rose 2,250 to 450,250 from the beginning of March.

March Industrial Production

Industrial production shows how much manufacturing, mining, electric and gas utilities are utilizing their resources, which accounts for 20% of GDP. It is an important tool for forecasting future GDP as well as measuring inflation by central banks.

Last month February Industrial Production increased 0.1% following 0.9% in January. December industrial production also jumped 0.7% concluding a three month moving average of 0.57%. The three month moving average gives a clearer picture of the trend. However the future seems to be mixed as other indexes showed that both February Philly Fed and the New York manufacturing indexes rose however the ISM manufacturing index fell back.

April Philadelphia Fed Survey

Based on last month’s numbers April Philadelphia Fed Survey is expected to be higher. March Philly Fed reported an increase of 18.9 in manufacturing activity compared to February's 17.6. The Philly Fed is a good indicator for the industrial production index. Next month's industrial production should increase just as February Industrial Production increased to 0.1% following 0.9% in January. On Monday March 15th March Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell 22.86 from February's 24.91 however it is above the consensus of 22.0. These numbers are indicating that the manufacturing sector seems to be stabilizing as the economy is recovering.

Manufacturing is a major sector of the economy and gives insight into commodity prices. By understanding the type of investments the manufacturing sector is seeking, commodity prices will follow the direction as well as inflationary pressures.

If the manufacturing sector is seeking steel and other raw materials then the index will increase and so will the prices of these commodities as well as inflation.

Weekly Natural Gas Report

The Energy Information Administration reported last week the natural gas reported a rose to 31 billion cubic feet increasing from the previous 12 billion cubic feet for the March 26 week. Increasing inventories would most likely keep prices steady or lower because supply outweighs demand.

April Housing Market Index

March Housing Index decreased to 15 from February's 17 due to tighter credit, bad weather, and competition with other distressed properties. The housing index runs from 0 to 100 and shows the demand for new homes provided by the National Association of Home Builders.

Last month we mentioned housing sector stocks: Lowes and Home Depot. Both Lowes (LOW) and Home Deport (HD) were currently hitting their 52 week highs of 25.01 and 32.50, respectively. As of April 14, 2010 Lowes is currently trading at 26.59 (52 week high=26.63) and Home Depot is at 34.98 (52 week high=35.07). Homeowners are resuming fix-up and repairs of their current homes rather than purchasing or moving into new ones.

Tomorrow February Housing Starts will be announced in the morning providing data on new construction activity. The federal home buyer tax credit for first-time home buyers as well as repeat buyers ends on April 30, 2010. Qualified first-time home buyers receive a tax credit up to $8,000 while repeat buyers are eligible up to $6,500.

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: April 14, 2010

S&P 500 Pivots

The S&P started falling to a low of 1189 before ending the day up 1 to the 1197 level. On Monday the S&P 500 reached a new 52 week high of 1199 as the afternoon kicked off earnings season with the announcement of Alcoa. Alcoa ended up nearly flat on Tuesday’s trading.

Wednesday’s primary pivot is 1195. Expect the market to trade between 1193 and 1197. Any trading outside this range could indicate trend changes pushing the index to new intraday highs or lows. The S&P 500 has been trending upward consistently on the daily charts.

Now that the Dow Jones has reached the 11,000 level the market is currently watching the S&P 500 1200 level. The last time it has reached this level was in 2008 so it is a major technical as well as psychological level for traders and investors. It was the level where the S&P held before the credit crisis occurred.

Summary of pivot levels:

1199: S&P 500 52 week high

1193 - 1197: Convergence of 8, 21, 55, 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving averages on 5 min

1194: Monday’s previous high

1189: Tuesday previous low

Commodities Analysis: Gold and Crude

Gold finished down $1 to $1153 as gold imports are up in India ahead of the one million weddings planned between April and May. Major of gold stocks within the sector were lower:

ABX (-0.81%) AEM (-1.19%) AU (-1.70%) AUY (-0.86%)

FCX (+0.52 %) GG (-0.79%) HMY (-2.61%) NEM (+0.43%)

A trading strategy for gold includes buying calls on SPDR Gold Trust (ETF: GLD). On the daily chart gold broke through the trading range above 1220 set in early December 2009. Gold is currently trading below Monday’s previous low of $1155.85. For the short term on the daily chart gold is expected to go lower as it has it been rising since March 24^th.

Crude oil fell $0.45 to $83.89. The dollar gained slightly against the euro. If the dollar continues to trend higher against the euro then expect prices in crude oil to fall. On the 60 day chart crude oil looks to be tipping over as traders are expected to take profits.

Previously the OPEC cartel announced that it will keep oil output ceiling unchanged as it will keep its profit from the falling dollar. Oil was currently trading sideways between the $80 and $81 however it has regained its footing reinforcing OPEC's decision of keeping oil output the same.

Forex Analysis: Dollar Vs Euro

The euro rallied over the weekend after euro zone finance ministers reached an agreement for the Greek aid package. However the euro came off its highs after the question of whether the package will have any effect or just plain grand standing.

GE is investing 340 million Euros ($460 million) to expand European wind operations. Companies buying into foreign currencies for purchases and investing increase the demand towards that country's currency. However the Euro gains are being cut short as Greece struggles with issues on their debt.

Disclaimer

The content in this website is provided for educational and informational purposes only. We offer no investment advice, and nothing in this material should be construed as such. There is a risk of loss when you invest; past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. Trading is the sole responsibility of the individual. No reader should act on the basis of any matter contained herein without getting appropriate professional advice. Every investor or trader should consider all advice and all offerings of products and services on their own merits and for suitability to the individual's personal needs and circumstances.

All Right Reserved TraderMongers.com © 2010