Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Day Trading Economic News Analysis: April 20, 2010

SP 500 Pivots
Monday’s trading the SP 500 ended at 1198 below the 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving averages on the 5 minute chart. Recently the volatility index spiked from a 52 week low of 15.23 to 17.34. There seems to be support between 16.50 and 15.50. Breaking these levels will push the SP 500 index higher.
The financial sector was helped with strong earnings from Citigroup after the plunge from SEC investigations against Goldman Sachs. Citigroup report the best results in 3 years after the fallout from the credit crisis. March leading indicators was up 1.4% showing slow recovery due to the higher than expect jobless claims.
Tuesday’s primary pivot point is 1193. Expect the market to trade higher breaking through the 1200 SP 500 level. Yesterday the index traded near 1183 (55 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart) then rallied upward. The overall trend for the SP 500 on the dailies is upward.

Summary of Pivot Levels:
1214: SP 500 52 week high
1192 - 1196: 8, 21, 55, 144 and 200 Fibonacci moving averages on 5 minute chart
1194: Monday, April 12, 2010 previous high
1189: Tuesday, April 13, 2010 previous low
1183: 55 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart

Commodities Analysis: Gold and Crude
Gold is currently down $2 to $1135. The gold prices may been settled in and may trend lower however gold imports are up in India ahead of the one million weddings planned between April and May. Gold has been trading sideways since it has come down in early December 2009.
A trading strategy for gold includes buying calls on SPDR Gold Trust (ETF: GLD). On the daily chart gold broke through the trading range above 1220 set in early December 2009.

Crude oil fell 1.8% to $83.13. Currently crude oil has been trending upward since early February and it is currently trading around 81.33 (55 Fibonacci moving average on daily chart). The dollar gained strength as traders and investors exited the market after the SEC announcement against Goldman Sachs. As the dollar continues to trend higher against the euro expect prices of crude oil to fall.

Forex Analysis: Dollar Vs Euro
The dollar gained again as investors and traders rushed to safety from stocks as Goldman Sachs faces SEC actions as well as worries over Greek debt. Previous the euro touched the 1.36 level which is the 55 Fibonacci moving average on the daily chart before sliding lower.
GE is investing 340 million Euros ($460 million) to expand European wind operations. Companies buying into foreign currencies for purchases and investing increase the demand towards that country's currency. However the Euro gains are being cut short as Greece struggles with issues on their debt.

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